Calder May 27

[Cerveza]

One of the problems with posting an entire card well before the races begin is that when a strong bias appears, it becomes obvious that some of the picks in later races have no chance whatsoever. This happened to me yesterday when the track was overly kind to the speed and is one of the reasons I don't always post picks for the last 3-5 races on a card. By then, the wise guys have caught on and the value on certain horses is dramatically reduced. That being said, here are my selections for today.

Race 1
FORMAL RAISE sure looks like a deserving favorite. He's got the experience, the speed, and he's definitely improving as he grows. But he's one of these horses I refuse to play because he lacks "guts" in the stretch. I think this horse is destined for a lifetime of minor placings. I'll go with END SWEEPS GOLD. He had a very troubled debut and then has since come back with two decent works and is dropped a notch while gaining the services of Cornelio. The other horse I expect to improve is REVOLUTION BOY.
The bet: $8 exacta 6/1,4 $5 exacta 1,4/6

Race 2
Fair amount of speed to choose from in this one. If SECRET RUNNER gets a good start, he could wire them - I would play this horse if he wasn't wheeling right back after running last Friday. So I'll turn to my second choice, SWAMPY. He's another who doesn't like to win so I have to scrap him too. I guess we'll settle on my third choice, STORM'S ROAR. Broke his maiden convincingly at 5f and now gets winners for the first time. Needs to improve bunches to beat these, but it's certainly plausible.
The bet: $1 tri box 1,5,7,8 $10 WP #5

Race 3
The best horses in here seem to be stepping up in class (#4 & #6). I'm going to look for a price with one that's dropping down - GO TO HARVARD. He's 6 for 18 lifetime, so if he gets the lead I feel comfortable that he can hold it.
The bet: $15 WP #2

Race 4
There's only a single runner in this race that's won at a mile, FANCY FORUM. She seems suited for the distance, she loves Calder, and she gets Castanon. Should repeat.
The bet: $20 WP #4

Race 5
FIRM REALITY's first turf start wasn't a total embarassment. She never let them get too far away - never quit running. Seems like good experience for this route. We could get double digits and that alone is worth a shot of finding out if she really is a turf horse.
The bet: $10 WPS #6

Race 6
Just look at all that inside speed. Really sets up for the two closers, right? Not if the track plays like it did yesterday. I think I'll go with the outside speed, RICH SILVER SWAN, to be around when the closers come calling.
The bet: $5 exacta box 7/5,6

Race 7
The horse that should be in perfect position when they turn for home is HONORABLE KING. He's shown good tactical speed and the pace will be highly contested as Cornelio tries to get the jump on the 4 and 5 from the rail.
The bet: $20 WP #7

 

[Matt24]

got the place with go to harvard? got to see the first 2 races on lunch break, but missed the 3rd? was it there at the end?

 

[Matt24]

Race: 5 Win Place Show
1st 6 FIRM REALITY 13.00 5.60 4.00

 

[Roanoke]

CERVEZA,

LOOKS LIKE SPEED WAS DOMINANT- I'VE NOTICED THAT'S USUALLY THE CASE AT CALDER-- IS A SPEED BIAS COMMON OVER THERE? IM FRAID TO BACK A CLOSER THERE.

 

[cabayero]

I followed Cerveza and Mazel's picks on memorial day monday the 26th and it was a disaster for me , I lost big bucks. but, in no shape or form am i blaming it on either of them , i still think highly of their picks and the efforts and contributions they devote to all of us in this forum.

 

[Cerveza]

Sorry about yesterday, cabayero. I lost a few dollars myself. Today was a little better, but not profitable (although I had a nice hit at Delaware that kept me in the black). I want to stress that I do not post these picks for people to blindly follow. I feel that sharing a little insight on the way I handicap or the reasons I back horses might help others by providing another source of information. Sure, I love when I cap a race well and everyone profits - but that's not why I post. I would love to see more talk about handicapping in this forum. Isn't it great to read Mazeltrick's posts? He gives his reasons for his opinions. Everyone reads the form a little differently, why not use this forum to share our ideas?
Anyway, I'll be posting Arlington for tomorrow - hope we get lucky.

 

[Roanoke]

CABAYER0-

I FOLLOWED MAZEL'S POSTS YESTERDAY AND ENDED UP DOING FINE, MOSTLY WITH THE ONES HE POSTED DURING THE RACE DAY THREAD (TATES CREEK, JIMMY O). I THINK CERVEZA SAID IT WELL AT THE TOP OF THIS POST; SOMETIMES WHEN YOU POST YOUR CARD BEFORE THE RACES START, YOU CAN'T CHANGE YOUR PICKS FOR BIASES, TRACK CONDITION, ETC. I USUALLY POST DURING THE RACE DAY B/C I LIKE TO LOOK AT THE ODDS BEFORE BETTING MY CASH.

CERVEZA- DO YOU HAVE AN ANSWER TO MY QUESTION ABOVE? THX.

 

[Cerveza]

roanoke -
Actually, I was doing very well at Calder up until this past Saturday playing the pace scenerios to run true to form. I found there to be little, if any, bias until this past weekend. Certainly the track is currently very kind to the speed, but I'm not so sure it will last. I was at an off-track facility today and asked an experienced Calder punter if this was common and he told me that historically there have been very few long-running speed biases there although they do crop up a couple times every meet.

 

Cerveza--always found the Tuesday card at Calder to be one of the most unbetable. N2L-Maiden16K's-and a lot of 2yo's with buried works done out "at the farm". Add to it a good chance of rain-and it's just too tough.

Don't get me wrong-have always been a fan of CRC-could be still my favorite track. But the last few years have seen smaller fields-cheaper purses-just a real fall off in class. I'm beginning to think maybe they should be dark 3 days a week-and a little more $$$ for overnights? Still-with the emphasis on 2 yo racing-and the strong pull of the Florida Breeders-maybe 5 days is necessary.

BTW-re:bias---have seen a rail bias-also a negative rail bias--but am always amazed/amused by the number of jocks down there who absolutely REFUSE to use these angles to their advantage. Anyway-last summer saw about a 15 day red-hot rail as good as any I'd ever seen at Hialeah Park-but most people seem to fail to recognize it until it has passed. (as do most of the pilots there!)

 

[Cerveza]

Thanks, Gino. I'll be watching Calder through the end of this meet and keeping pretty thorough notes. It will be interesting to see which jocks, if any, adjust.